Wednesday, April 18, 2007

Docsis 3.0 Coming Sooner

CableLabs has created a plan that will make Docsis 3.0 cable modems available in the second quarter of 2008 rather than late 2008 or 2009. Apparently, CableLabs is doing this as a result from the cable companies to accelerate Docsis 3.0 deployment as a response to Verizon's FiOS FTTP deployment and ATT's Project Lightspeed VDSL deployment.

The telcos have been signing up more broadband subscribers than the cable modem services. Docsis 3.0 will be a powerful tool for reversing this trend and putting the cable modem service back in the lead in North America. This is a significant threat to the Telcos and especially to ATT.

Thursday, April 12, 2007

Cablevision Hits a Wall with NPVR

Cablevision, the cable provider in the New York suburbs, took an aggressive approach to Network PVR (NPVR) services that ran into strong resistance from the content industry. NPVR is a service where the service provider (Cablevision) records broadcast TV channels and provides the ability to replay specific programs at a later time.

Cablevision felt that it had the right to do this, but the networks disagreed. They sued and Cablevision lost. It is now appealing that decision.

There is an interesting summary of the current situation on LightReading at http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=121644&site=cdn

This argument is particularly important for IPTV providers. The IPTV networks are better suited than cable networks to support NPVR and other on demand services. NPVR can give the telcos a significant advantage over the cable companies.

It has been clear for a long time that the networks had deep reservations about NPVR services. Cablevisions actions have polarized the issue and made an evolution to a full NPVR service very difficult to achieve in the U.S.

FastWeb in Italy has been successful with a slower approach. It started with a service that emulated a home based PVR in that the viewer had to declare in advance that he or she wanted to record a program. FastWeb would record that program and allow only that viewer and any other viewers that requested that the program be recorded to view it later. This was no worse that if the viewer owned a Tivo, so the broadcasters in Italy accepted it.

Last year FastWeb took the next step and deployed an NPVR service that provides access to broadcast programs from the previous three days for any viewer, whether or not he or she requested it in advance.

If Cablevision's suit is not successful, a similar step by step process will have to occur in the U.S. as well.

Wednesday, April 11, 2007

Motorola ECI Partnership

Motorola has formed a partnership with ECI that gives it the ability to offer ECI's access systems globally. The initial focus of the agreement will be on the U.S. market, but the agreement permits Motoroa to market ECI IP DSLAM access equipment globally except for countries where ECI already has strong market presence.

ECI has a strong set of IP access system products that support ADSL, ADSL-2+, and VDSL in both central office and remote locations. The ECI products complement Motorola's current set of PON FTTP systems. ECI's systems support a large portion of the broadband and IPTV subscribers at France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom. Motorola is one of two PON FTTP suppliers to Verizon's FiOS service.

Motorola has a large share of the North American IPTV access market through its acquisition of Next Level. A large portion of the Canadian telcos and the small U.S. telcos that have IPTV services use Motorola/Next Level systems. These Next Level systems are ATM based and many of these telcos are looking for a way to upgrade them to an IP DSLAM.

While Motorola's primary focus for its access systems has been North America, it has recently started marketing its access systems internationally. It has found that cable companies interested in FTTP architectures and some telcos are showing interest. Motorola already has a strong relationship with many cable companies outside of the U.S.

This partnership makes good sense for both companies. Motorola needs a way to retain its Next Level customers, otherwise they will go other vendors. ECI has never achieved much success in North America even though it has a strong product line. The two companies should do well by focusing initially on Motorola's current customer base.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

TelcoTV vs. Internet TV

TelecomView has released its report called The Battle for Broadband TV: TelcoTV vs. Internet TV. This report discusses how Internet TV will affect TelcoTV. It identifies how the two services can cooperate with each other as well compete.

The report discusses how the two services will be positioned to serve the TVs in the home. It identifies fundamental advantages that the TelcoTV services have in doing this and gives strategies that telcos can use to strengthen their position.

You can find out more about this report at:

http://www.telecomview.info/acatalog/Broadband_TV.html

You can also order a free white paper on this subject at:

http://www.telecomview.info/acatalog/Publications_White_Papers_8.html

Let us know what you think.

J-Com Offering Docsis 3.0

J-Com, the cable company in Japan, will offer a 160 Mbps cable modem service based pre-Docsis 3.0 from Arris. This service will help it compete with the extensive FTTH services available from NTT and other Telcos in Japan.

Keep your eye on Docsis 3.0. If the U.S. cable companies broadly deploy 100 Mbps Docsis 3.0 services, the telco broadband services will be in trouble. ADSL will not be able to compete. Even VDSL will have a very tough time. Only Verizon's FiOS PON based service will be able to compete.

Qwest IPTV Stalled

Lightreading has published a good summary of Qwest's IPTV status at

http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=120059

Qwest was one of the first major IPTV deployments six or seven years ago with VDSL deployments in Phoenix, AZ and near Denver, CO. Other than some expansion of these systems, it has not done anything more since Nacchio left Qwest.

It looks like Qwest is still stalled. It will have to commit to VDSL or fiber to have a viable broadband IPTV offering. I don't think it is ready to do that.

HD's Strong Appeal in Europe

The BBC has published an interesting study of user reactions to HD in the UK. As you can imagine, they loved it. You can find the study at:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/info/policies/pdf/dtt_hdtrial.pdf

Both BT and FastWeb have told me that they did not think that HD would be as strong in Europe as it is in North America. They both said that the improvement from HD is not as great in Europe because their SD sets have higher resolution.

I did not buy their argument. I think this study confirms that HD will be quite strong in Europe. Service providers in Europe need to upgrade their networks to support it or it will pass them by.