Monday, April 30, 2007
Verizon FiOS TV up 68% in Quarter
Verizon is adding nearly 2,200 FiOS TV subscribers to day, which is more than five times the 2,000 U-verse IPTV subscribers that ATT is adding per week. Verizon also added 78 thousand DirecTV satellite TV subscribers bringing its total satellite customers to 618 thousand.
Verizon added 177 thousand FiOS Internet subscribers and 416 thousand total broadband subscribers during the quarter. Verizon stated that nearly 60 percent of FiOS TV orders include Internet services. FiOS now accounts for 16 percent of Verizon's broadband customers.
Verizon's FiOS success story is continuing. This demonstrates the soundness of its fiber strategy. Take a look at the ATT posts in this blog from last week and the week before that showed that its IPTV subscribers grew from 3,000 to 15,000 during the first quarter. ATT's total was 18,000 in the middle of March.
ATT made much of its smarter FTTN strategy that required less investment than Verizon's FTTP approach. So far, it has not worked out that way.
Chunghwa IPTV Growth Continues
IPTV is continuing strong growth. Its 1Q07 was just a bit below the 37.5 thousand subscribers average per quarter that it achieved in 2006.
Telefonica buys into Telecom Italia
This is a bit outside of what I usually include in the blog, but I wanted to mention that this could affect Microsoft's prospects. Telecom Italia is using Alcatel-Lucent's OMP IPTV middleware but is still evaluating Microsoft's IPTV Edition middleware in its labs.
Alcatel-Lucent also the MiView TV IPTV middleware which was originally developed by Telefonica. I expect that Telefonica will encourage Telecom Italia to adopt this middleware software.
Friday, April 27, 2007
Verizon Courting MDUs
Extending into MDUs can be a tough nut to crack. It can be difficult to get enough people in a building to commit to buy the new service to justify the expense of providing it. KDDI found this to be a problem in Japan. Verizon's approach of pointing out how the value of the building increases is an interesting twist, but this is likely to continue to be a tough sell.
Thursday, April 26, 2007
Sun Defines New Approach to IPTV Networking
IPTV broadcast channels are typically delivered using mulicast which allows viewers to share the same set of packets, thus significantly reducing network loading for this broadcast content. Of course, there is not personalization with these broadcast services since all viewers are seeing exactly the same thing.
The introduction of video on demand followed by NPVR and advanced advertising will push more and more IPTV traffic into unicast. Sun's system addresses this increased network loading by pushing the IPTV connections down to the optical layer.
The Sun Streaming System consists of the following elements:
- Supervisor nodes
- Controller nodes
- Session controller nodes
- Content acquisition nodes
- Media storage
- Ethernet switch
The Ethernet switch included in the Sun system is connected to a set of optical links that terminate in the video serving office with the access systems and DSLAMs that terminate the subscriber broadband connections. This approach bypasses a Layer 2 Ethernet network or Layer 3 IP network to transport video traffic to the edge.
You can get more information about the Sun Streaming System at
http://www.sun.com/aboutsun/media/presskits/streamstar/
I have been quite concerned about how IP or Ethernet transport networks would be able to cope with the increasing loads of video traffic as IPTV services become more popular. It looks like the optical approach that Sun is offering is the right way to go.
TelecomView will release a report next week that compare IP, Ethernet, and optical approaches to IPTV networking. It will conclude that an optical will be best in the long run as the amount of unicast traffic on the network increases.
France Telecom's Will Pass 1M IPTV Subs in 2007
France Telecom's IPTV service in Poland now has 9 thousand subscribers. Its total number of IPTV subscribers across all of its operations is 768 thousand, up from 229 thousand in the previous 12 months. In addition to France and Poland, France Telecom has IPTV operations in the UK, Spain, and in some of the French overseas territories.
France Telecom continues to do well. Between France Telecom, Free, and Neuf Cegetel there will be well over 3 million IPTV subscriber in France by the end of the year.
Tuesday, April 24, 2007
ATT Q1 Report
ATT stated that it had 1.7 million ATT Dish Network satellite subscribers at the end of March, and increase of 1.1 million subscribers in the previous 12 months. Surprisingly, its Homezone hybrid satellite/broadband service had only 6 thousand subscribers.
ATT's performance on its ATT Dish Network bodes well for U-verse. It shows that ATT's bundling strategies can be quite effective in attracting TV viewers.
Motorola to acquire Terayon
This is the latest of a series of acquisitions that Motorola is making to improve its position in both the cable and TelcoTV markets. Advanced advertising is an important emerging area that will become increasingly important.
Neuf Cegetel Acqure #2 Position in France?
There were reports that Iliad/Free was also bidding for Club Internet but dropped out as the price went up.
Neuf Cegetel has used merger and acquisition as its primary strategy for catching and passing Free. The first step was the merger of Neuf and Cegetel two years ago. Last year it acquired AOL's customer base in France.
This acquisition will mean that Microsoft will lose one of its leading deployments. Neuf Cegetel has a well honed, competitive IPTV offering and is unlikely to switch to Microsoft.
KDDI FTTH Takes Big Jump
The number of FTTH subscribers jumped to 592 thousand at the end of its 2007 fiscal year in March. It estimates that it will have 900 thousand FTTH subscribers by the end of March 2008. Its objective is to capture 30 percent of the FTTH subscribers in the Tokyo metropolitan area. It plans to expand its FTTH business to other areas of Japan based on its success in Tokyo. Its strategy is to use FTTH and other broadband business to turn around its wireline business.
KDDI has not disclosed its number of IPTV subscribers. Based on discussions with KDDI, I estimate that the number of KDDI's IPTV subscribers grew from 45 thousand in March 2006 to 65 thousand in March 2007.
As far as I know, Tepco was not offering IPTV services. I expect that KDDI will expand its IPTV service to its full FTTH subscriber base, which should cause a big jump in IPTV subscribers this year.
Friday, April 20, 2007
Kasenna Tested at 1 Million Subscribers
This simulation was run at HPs IPTV lab in Grenoble, France. It assumes that 60 percent of the set-top boxes were active and 40 percent inactive. The 60 percent active set-top boxes break down into:
- 18% watching or channel surfing broadcast TVs (180 thousand)
- 34% watching VOD and NPVR services (350 thousand)
- 1% browsing video on demand content (10 thousand)
- 4% browsing the electronic program guide (40 thousand)
- 3% viewing other applications (30 thousand)
Kasenna and HP are planning to release a white paper that gives the details of this test next week. You can download a summary of this test and register for the white paper at:
Kasenna promised to give me an early release of the white paper along with an interview with one of their technical people who worked on this project. I will post a summary after that.
This result is impressive. Kasenna uses a thin client approach, so it is quite dependent on the servers. Earlier middleware systems such as Nokia Siemens Myrio is set-top box based and puts a much lighter load on the network. Two years ago Myrio told me that their software could support 1 million subscribers with 4 servers. The primary function of these servers is to download software into the set-top boxes.
At that same time, Microsoft told me that their software would require 600 servers to support 1 million subscribers.
Set-top Box Directory
http://www2.blogger.com/post-create.g?blogID=2470368625289588135
This list looks to be quite complete.
Thursday, April 19, 2007
ATT's IPTV Picking Up Steam
This is good news from ATT. It sounds as if its IPTV marketing rollout has started in earnest. If it can maintain or improve on this rate and continue to expand its service foot print, it will be in a good position to make a significant dent in the U.S. pay TV market.
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Comcast Video Interface
This is another counter move against the TelcoTV services, especially the Microsoft IPTV Edition software. This sounds like a good move on Comcast's part but is being deployed over a significant period of time. This will give both ATT and Verizon time to respond in most of their territories.
Docsis 3.0 Coming Sooner
The telcos have been signing up more broadband subscribers than the cable modem services. Docsis 3.0 will be a powerful tool for reversing this trend and putting the cable modem service back in the lead in North America. This is a significant threat to the Telcos and especially to ATT.
Thursday, April 12, 2007
Cablevision Hits a Wall with NPVR
Cablevision felt that it had the right to do this, but the networks disagreed. They sued and Cablevision lost. It is now appealing that decision.
There is an interesting summary of the current situation on LightReading at http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=121644&site=cdn
This argument is particularly important for IPTV providers. The IPTV networks are better suited than cable networks to support NPVR and other on demand services. NPVR can give the telcos a significant advantage over the cable companies.
It has been clear for a long time that the networks had deep reservations about NPVR services. Cablevisions actions have polarized the issue and made an evolution to a full NPVR service very difficult to achieve in the U.S.
FastWeb in Italy has been successful with a slower approach. It started with a service that emulated a home based PVR in that the viewer had to declare in advance that he or she wanted to record a program. FastWeb would record that program and allow only that viewer and any other viewers that requested that the program be recorded to view it later. This was no worse that if the viewer owned a Tivo, so the broadcasters in Italy accepted it.
Last year FastWeb took the next step and deployed an NPVR service that provides access to broadcast programs from the previous three days for any viewer, whether or not he or she requested it in advance.
If Cablevision's suit is not successful, a similar step by step process will have to occur in the U.S. as well.
Wednesday, April 11, 2007
Motorola ECI Partnership
ECI has a strong set of IP access system products that support ADSL, ADSL-2+, and VDSL in both central office and remote locations. The ECI products complement Motorola's current set of PON FTTP systems. ECI's systems support a large portion of the broadband and IPTV subscribers at France Telecom and Deutsche Telekom. Motorola is one of two PON FTTP suppliers to Verizon's FiOS service.
Motorola has a large share of the North American IPTV access market through its acquisition of Next Level. A large portion of the Canadian telcos and the small U.S. telcos that have IPTV services use Motorola/Next Level systems. These Next Level systems are ATM based and many of these telcos are looking for a way to upgrade them to an IP DSLAM.
While Motorola's primary focus for its access systems has been North America, it has recently started marketing its access systems internationally. It has found that cable companies interested in FTTP architectures and some telcos are showing interest. Motorola already has a strong relationship with many cable companies outside of the U.S.
This partnership makes good sense for both companies. Motorola needs a way to retain its Next Level customers, otherwise they will go other vendors. ECI has never achieved much success in North America even though it has a strong product line. The two companies should do well by focusing initially on Motorola's current customer base.
Tuesday, April 10, 2007
TelcoTV vs. Internet TV
The report discusses how the two services will be positioned to serve the TVs in the home. It identifies fundamental advantages that the TelcoTV services have in doing this and gives strategies that telcos can use to strengthen their position.
You can find out more about this report at:
http://www.telecomview.info/acatalog/Broadband_TV.html
You can also order a free white paper on this subject at:
http://www.telecomview.info/acatalog/Publications_White_Papers_8.html
Let us know what you think.
J-Com Offering Docsis 3.0
Keep your eye on Docsis 3.0. If the U.S. cable companies broadly deploy 100 Mbps Docsis 3.0 services, the telco broadband services will be in trouble. ADSL will not be able to compete. Even VDSL will have a very tough time. Only Verizon's FiOS PON based service will be able to compete.
Qwest IPTV Stalled
http://www.lightreading.com/document.asp?doc_id=120059
Qwest was one of the first major IPTV deployments six or seven years ago with VDSL deployments in Phoenix, AZ and near Denver, CO. Other than some expansion of these systems, it has not done anything more since Nacchio left Qwest.
It looks like Qwest is still stalled. It will have to commit to VDSL or fiber to have a viable broadband IPTV offering. I don't think it is ready to do that.
HD's Strong Appeal in Europe
http://www.bbc.co.uk/info/policies/pdf/dtt_hdtrial.pdf
Both BT and FastWeb have told me that they did not think that HD would be as strong in Europe as it is in North America. They both said that the improvement from HD is not as great in Europe because their SD sets have higher resolution.
I did not buy their argument. I think this study confirms that HD will be quite strong in Europe. Service providers in Europe need to upgrade their networks to support it or it will pass them by.
Saturday, April 7, 2007
IPTV Book
http://www.viodi.tv/2007/04/07/iptv_crash_course/
I have not seen this book and cannot endorse it, but there are few books available on the subject. It may be worth a look if you are coming up to speed on the subject.
Regulatory Uncertainty Continues in Korea
You can see the source of this post at http://english.donga.com/srv/service.php3?bicode=020000&biid=2007040730798
The regulatory status of IPTV has been muddled for some time. It appears that this ruling will not help the situation. Maybe I need to go and reduce my IPTV forecast for Korea?
Wednesday, April 4, 2007
Telia Offers Free IPTV in Sweden
We have heard that this offer has been quite successful and that Telia has been adding 10 thousand new IPTV subscribers per week since it introduced this service. This would bring its subscriber base somewhere around 150 thousand IPTV subscribers.
It is hard to turn down something that is free!
ATT Promoting IPTV
This is ATT's first move to promote its U-verse service. This offer will have a much larger effect on its satellite services since U-verse is only available in a few places.
Monday, April 2, 2007
Virgin Media Responding to BT Vision
This is a clear response to BT Vision IPTV service. Virgin is trying to retain its broadband customers from moving to BT Vision in the face of BT's offer of a free Freeview set-top box. Virgin is also using this offer to move people to its voice/data bundle.
BT Vision will start providing a rich set of on demand services starting before spring ends. This will make it difficult for Virgin to compete until its own on demand services come up to speed. On the other hand, BT cannot afford a slow rollout. Virgin (and others) will be breathing down its neck.
Nokia Siemens Networks Starts Up
This merger is likely to have a strong effect on Siemens IPTV efforts. Nokia has not had any significant participation in the IPTV market globally. It seems likely that the company will increase its focus on Tier 1 carriers globally.
Open IPTV Forum Interview
- It will specify a common and open end to end solution for supplying a variety of TV and Internet multimedia services to consumer devices in the home network.
- It will consider establishing a certification and logo program.
- It will include all the key players - customer equipment, content providers, network operators, service providers, network vendors, home device vendors
- It will strive to bring standards to the market more quickly than traditional standards organizations.
- A common IPTV Terminal Function (ITF) that supports services from both an open Internet and a managed network environment.
- Interactive and personalized services and the integration with communications services.
- Convergence of IPTV and multimedia services across different access technologies.
- Easy integration of 3rd party content offerings.
- DLNA
- IMS
- DVB-IPI
- Internet portals
- Web browsers
- Multimedia middleware
They identified three reasons why the Forum was formed:
- No other standards body is covering all aspects of an end to end IPTV solution in a timely manner.
- To address the combination of managed networks and the open Internet for service delivery.
- To address the blending of IPTV and communications services.
You can get more information at the Open IPTV Forum at www.openiptvforum.org
The Open IPTV Forum is attacking important problems. Today every IPTV middleware package and sometimes separate deployments of the same middleware package have different interfaces. This makes it difficult for the set-t0p box manufacturers and their silicon suppliers. These companies have to go out and develop new software for every middleware package they want to support at a minimum. This is impossible for consumer device companies. There is no way that Sony or any other manufacturer will put an IPTV set-top box into their TVs if different software has to be loaded into it for every IPTV network.
The other work items for the Forum are also good choices. Personalised and interactive services are very important differentiators for IPTV services. The Forum must address the functions required for interactive and other new forms of advertising as well.
The convergence of IPTV and IMS is another important issue. I wrote a report on this for MRG http://www.mrgco.com last year. Bringing telephone services to the TV is another important differentiator, one that the U.S. cable companies are working diligently on.
Integrating the open Internet with managed IPTV services is also important. We will release a new report on this subject the week after next. The Forum is planning to do it right by addressing how content will be brought from the Internet as well as how third party content providers can provide service in addition to the managed IPTV service.
ATIS in the U.S. and the ITU have similar objectives to the Open IPTV Forum. All of this work will need to be harmonized and brought to market. It may be too late. Most of the large telcos have already committed to IPTV architectures. They will have to somehow evolve to Open IPTV Forum standards over time if this work is to be meaningful. It is just not clear how this will occur.